Tuesday October 4, 2016
Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, in the process setting new, three-month highs, on continued momentum building buying following last week's special summit between major global oil producers. Since last Wednesday, when OPEC (et al) announced it would limit production starting next year, November WTI has risen by over four dollars and is within one strong move of breaching the $50 barrier (last seen in late June). Trading volume has been very brisk of late, indicating new bullish length entering the market (those believing the OPEC story) and / or a run for cover by the incredulous bears.
November WTI traded in a dollar range for most of the day on Monday, starting off slowly before rallying in the afternoon to hit its daily high at closing time. Even the early weakness, which saw WTI 'dip' to $48 wasn't a sign of a full-on price retreat, another indication that the market is really in bull territory. There will be significant resistance by the techies at or near $50, though the trend right now doesn't portent any slowdown until we get near those figures.
November WTI settled at $48.81, up 57-cents on the day. The RBOB and Heating Oil contracts (now with November as the prompt month) were up about a penny each, and are up by over 10-cents each during the recent surge. Cash markets for all products in the Gulf Coast and Southeast remain well supported by lingering supply issues from the Colonial Pipeline shutdown and by the early onset of a heavy fall PADD III (Gulf Coast) refinery maintenance season.
Hurricane Matthew is currently projected to skirt the Southeast corridor in the coming days, thus avoiding the Gulf of Mexico and major oil producing fields but should cause continued nuisance to East Coast ports. RBOB and gasoline markets are the most likely to be impacted by the storm, as heavy rains will likely decrease demand but may limit or delay incoming waterborne supply.
Published by PAPCO, Inc. (PAPCO)
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