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DOE Report Points to a Bearish Situation

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The only real change to the market yesterday was that the calendar flipped a day. After the release of the Department of Energy’s weekly data report, markets were quickly sold off as the downward price action continued. Front month WTI has finished lower five straight trading sessions. Seven of the last eight have finished lower as well, as the continuing theme of an oversupplied market continues. Yesterday’s WTI settle of $41.92 is $9.75 lower than the June 9th WTI price peak. After falling below a key WTI support level early in the week, we are quickly approaching another level. It will be interesting to see how price reacts around the current levels. Read more

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Mixed Bag in the Markets

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Markets were a mixed bag on Tuesday. Across the board losses were seen early in the day, as the downward momentum continued. Interestingly, the early losses on the front month RBOB contract pushed its value to the lowest point it has seen since March 4th. However, this movement was tempered on the products side. The recent decline brought back renewed buying which ultimately brought the products into the green for their settle. Despite this small bounce in the ULSD and RBOB contracts, WTI settled lower on the day and finished below $43. This marks four straight days of losses for front month WTI, and losses in six of the last seven trading sessions. Read more

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Bearish Cloud Over the Market

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After breaking below key support levels, September WTI ran lower on Monday, its third consecutive leg lower. This technical side was coupled with further bearish fundamentals, which include the cliché of oversupplied markets. With yesterday’s downward move, front month WTI is now at its lowest level since April 26th. Further we are now about $8.50 removed from WTI year-to-date high, which we witnessed in early June. The U.S. dollar tested its recent high (established Friday) before bouncing off the level. This strength in the currency served as another bearish cloud over the market. Read more

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Today’s Fuel Market Report

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With a relatively quiet news front on Friday, the attention of the market was drawn to the continued theme of oversupply, both domestically and globally. As a result, the market was weaker for most of the day. Front month WTI, which is now the September contract, was off about 50 cents for the day, and tested the recent low (around $43.70) before bouncing off and settling at the $44.19 value. For the week, front month WTI (last week a mixture of days of Aug WTI and Sept WTI) declined four of the five business days, as the overall bearish sentiment remains in the market. Read more

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A Rare Alignment of DOE & API Data

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Markets started yesterday on weaker footing, as the dollar followed up Tuesday’s strength with another new high. This put early pressure on the futures market, especially the RBOB contract which continues to be the weak point in the complex. However, despite lower prices early the markets reacted bullishly to the Department of Energy’s(DOE) weekly report. In a rare occurrence recently, the DOE and API reports were relatively similar as both were highlighted by crude oil draws and gasoline builds. While the DOE’s report was mostly in line with expectations, the crude oil draw was slightly above expectations and markets caught a bid (despite overall levels continuing to remain elevated). Read more

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RBOB & ULSD at Odds in the Marketplace

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Energy markets were relatively quiet on Tuesday, as participants waited on this week’s inventory statistics for a sense of price direction. The move lower was again lead by the RBOB contract, which now trades at a discount (again) to the ULSD contract. As we have stated in the past, it is unusual for RBOB to be below ULSD this time of year. For those brave of heart, there has been plenty of volatility in this spread over these past couple of months. Read more

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Is a Flotilla of Fuel Storage Next on the Horizon?

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The oil complex started the week lower yesterday as attention turned to what appears to be an oversupplied market. The downward price action was led by the RBOB contract, which had been the lagging product on Friday. Monday was a muted day for news, and overall the market is looking to today’s API and tomorrow’s DOE report for signals on future price action. August WTI was down 71 cents on the day, moving it towards the $45 dollar support level with front of the curve structure settling at 70 cents of carry. Read more

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Rig Counts & Talk of Turkey Move the Oil Complex

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Markets ended the week on a fairly muted tone. “Summer Friday” was in full effect as front month WTI trading was just over the 400,000 lot threshold, even after an unusual rise near the end of the day. Most of the energy complex moved marginally higher on Friday, with the ULSD contract as the lone exception. With ULSD lagging on Friday, it helps widen its discount to RBOB, typical for this time of year. Although stronger on Friday, front month WTI still remains at the lower end of the much talked about $45-$50 range it has traded in for most of the month. Read more

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Oil Complex Back in the Range

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Markets bounced back on Thursday, recovering some of the sizeable losses from Wednesday. By finishing up almost a dollar, WTI has reestablished its range of $45-$50, which has been its long run channel. RBOB was the leader on the day in terms of outright move, and has retaken its normally seasonal premium value over the ULSD contract. There was no true market news to drive yesterday’s rally, other than profit taking and a bounce off the previous days sell off. This up move was buoyed by the U.S. dollar, which was down on the day and reached its lowest level in four days. Read more

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DOE Report Adds Kick #3 to the Gut of the Oil Market

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Energy markets sold off during Wednesday’s trading session. The downward momentum was started overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This early movement was the result of the market being caught off guard by a build in crude oil inventory levels, as reported by the API Tuesday. Markets then witnessed further downward pressure after the release of OPEC data by the IEA. In a review of June numbers, the IEA noted that OPEC crude oil production rose 400,000 barrels to bring the total crude oil production by the cartel to 33.21 million barrels a day. Read more

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